The average sale price increased during the most recent 60 days. Normally, that sounds like a straightforward win for sellers. But homes also took longer to sell, more sellers reduced their price and the average price per square foot went down.
The average price went up because the homes selling recently were larger. Buyers were not necessarily paying more for the same house. That distinction matters if you are trying to decide what your home is worth or whether this is a good time to buy.
I pulled every closed single-family home sale under approximately $900,000 in Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee and Winchester. I excluded 55-and-older communities, then compared the most recent 60 days with the 60 days immediately before that.
Altogether, this analysis includes 1,317 closed sales covering approximately four months. That gives us enough information to see what is really changing beneath the usual monthly real estate headlines.
Recent period: June 15 through August 13, 2026
Previous period: April 16 through June 14, 2026
Included: Single-family residences in Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee and Winchester
Excluded: 55+ communities and homes above the selected price range
The average sale price increased from approximately $675,689 to $684,520. That is an increase of about $8,831, or 1.3%.
If we stopped there, the conclusion would be simple: home prices went up.
But the average price per square foot fell from approximately $322 to $317. At the same time, the average size of the homes sold increased from approximately 2,218 square feet to 2,288 square feet.
Larger homes made up more of the recent sales. That pulled the average sale price higher even though buyers paid slightly less per square foot. This does not mean values collapsed, but it also does not support the idea that the same house suddenly appreciated 1.3% in only 60 days.
This is why I do not like relying on one market statistic. The average price can move because values changed, because the types of homes selling changed, or because of some combination of both.
In the video below, I walk through the numbers, the differences between each city and what this means for buyers and sellers.
Average days on market increased from approximately 31.7 days to 36 days. That is an increase of about 4.3 days, or 13.5%.
Five additional days does not sound disastrous, and it is not. But the change becomes more meaningful when we look at what happened during the first two weeks.
During the previous period, approximately 48.3% of closed homes went under contract within 14 days. That dropped to approximately 39.4% during the recent period.
Approximately 16.8% of recent sales took more than 60 days to secure a buyer, compared with 15.5% during the previous period.
The first couple of weeks still matter. Sellers who miss the market early are more likely to spend the next month waiting, reducing the price or doing both.
The percentage of sold homes that had received a price reduction increased from approximately 29.8% to 36.1%.
The share of homes closing below the final asking price increased from 31.5% to 35.1%. At the same time, the percentage selling above asking dropped from 42.5% to 38.8%.
The average home still closed at approximately 100% of its final list price. Properly priced homes are still selling. The difference is that buyers have become less willing to rescue an overpriced listing just because inventory is limited.
This is not a collapsing market. Closed-sale volume held up, and the average home still sold close to its final asking price.
It is also not the kind of seller’s market where almost anything sells immediately. The market softened underneath the higher average-price headline. Buyers are paying closer attention to condition, location, taxes, upgrades and whether the asking price makes sense.
We have moved further into a property-by-property market. Two homes in the same city can receive completely different reactions depending on the neighborhood, lot, condition and initial price.
Citywide statistics are useful, but they cannot account for your neighborhood, lot, condition, upgrades or current competition. I personally review each request using both brokerage and appraisal experience.
Request a Personal Home-Value Review See More Market UpdatesThis market update is based on CRMLS closed-sale data supplied for single-family residences in Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee and Winchester within the selected price range. Senior communities were excluded. Averages are affected by the size, condition, location and mix of homes sold. This information is a market overview and is not an appraisal of any specific property.
