Temecula & Murrieta Housing Market – What 0-60 VS 60-120 Days of MLS Data Actually Shows (March 2026)

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the Temecula housing market or the Murrieta real estate market heading into spring 2026, here’s the real deal — straight from the MLS data. I pulled every single-family home sale under $900K with 3+ bedrooms and 2+ bathrooms that closed between January 2nd and March 2nd, 2026, and compared it to the previous 60-day window (November 3rd, 2025 through January 2nd, 2026). No condos, no 55+ communities — just the bread-and-butter homes that most families in Southwest Riverside County are shopping for.

Let’s break down what the numbers actually tell us about home prices in Temecula and Murrieta, how long homes are sitting on the market, what buyers are negotiating in concessions, and whether inventory levels favor buyers or sellers right now.

Temecula Home Prices Are Ticking Up — But It’s Not All Sunshine

The Temecula median home price landed at $722,500 over the last 60 days, up $7,500 from the prior period. Average close price bumped up slightly too, from $722,608 to $725,344. That’s a steady number, and if you’re a Temecula homeowner, you can feel good about that. Price per square foot also moved in the right direction — the median jumped from $347.52 to $358.06 per square foot.

But here’s the part a lot of people miss: when you factor in buyer concessions — things like closing cost credits, rate buydowns, repairs, and solar payoffs — the effective price sellers actually walk away with tells a slightly different story. The average effective price came in at $716,330, which is still up from $713,692 in the prior period, so that’s positive. The point is, the sticker price isn’t always the whole picture when you’re trying to understand what homes are really selling for in Temecula.

Fewer Temecula Sellers Are Dropping Their Price — But When They Do, It Hurts More

This is one of the more interesting trends in the Temecula real estate market right now. Only 34.8% of sellers who closed in the last 60 days had to reduce their listing price at some point, compared to 44.0% in the prior period. That’s a huge improvement — it means more sellers are pricing correctly from the start, or that buyer demand is absorbing what’s out there.

The flip side? When sellers do drop their price in Temecula, the average reduction has grown from $35,941 to $47,553. So the overpriced homes are getting hit harder. The takeaway for sellers: pricing your Temecula home correctly from day one has never been more critical. Nail the price and you can move quickly. Miss the mark, and you might be looking at a $40K-$50K haircut down the road.

The sale-to-list ratio held steady at 99.6%, and about 35.9% of homes sold above asking — essentially flat from the prior period. Nearly half (48.9%) sold below asking, up a few points from 45.0%.

How Long Does It Take to Sell a Home in Temecula Right Now?

Days on market in Temecula have been creeping up, and if you’re a seller, this is the number you want to pay attention to. The average DOM for closed sales jumped from 43 days to about 56 days. Median held more steady at 31 days (up from 30), which tells you there’s a chunk of homes sitting significantly longer and dragging that average up. Cumulative days on market — which counts time across relists — climbed from 50 to 67 days on average.

If you’re buying a home in Temecula, this gives you a little more breathing room to make decisions and negotiate. If you’re selling, it’s a reminder that the late-2024 speed of the market has slowed down and patience matters.

Temecula Inventory and Sales Pace

Here’s where we see the slowdown most clearly. Temecula saw 92 closed sales in the last 60 days, down from 109 in the prior window. That puts the monthly sales pace at about 46 homes, compared to 54.5 before. With 134 active listings currently on the market and 74 homes pending, we’re looking at roughly 2.9 months of inventory in Temecula — up from 2.5. That’s still well within balanced territory (6 months is considered a balanced market), but the trend is unmistakably moving toward giving buyers more options.

The average list price of what’s currently active sits at $753,050, and those listings have been sitting for about 50 days on average.

Buyer Concessions in Temecula

About 41.3% of closed Temecula sales included some form of buyer concession — things like closing cost credits, interest rate buydowns, repair credits, or even sellers paying off solar leases. That’s slightly up from 39.4% in the prior period. When concessions were given, they averaged $21,823, which is actually down a bit from $22,601 before.

A quick note on how I handle this data: I strip out broker compensation from the concessions numbers so we’re looking at actual money going back to the buyer, not what’s being paid to agents. Where the MLS comment mentioned both broker comp and buyer credits mixed together, I estimated a 50/50 split. It’s not perfect, but it gives a much more realistic picture than lumping everything together.

Murrieta Real Estate Market: Flat Prices, But Strengthening Fundamentals

Now let’s talk about Murrieta home prices. The median sale price in Murrieta held dead flat at $695,000 — same as the prior period. Average close price dipped just barely from $701,228 to $699,351. So no, Murrieta home values aren’t surging, but they’re absolutely not declining either. If you bought in Murrieta in the last year or two, your value is holding.

What’s interesting about the Murrieta data is that price per square foot actually improved. The average went from $297.33 to $308.85, which is a solid jump. Part of that reflects slightly smaller homes selling in this period (average 2,396 sq ft vs. 2,467 previously), but either way, buyers are paying more per square foot for Murrieta single-family homes than they were two months ago.

Murrieta Sellers Are Holding Stronger at the Negotiation Table

This is where Murrieta’s housing market actually looks stronger than Temecula right now. The sale-to-original-list ratio improved from 97.5% to 98.6% — meaning buyers are paying closer to what sellers originally listed at. Fewer sellers dropped their price (42.3% vs. 47.1%), and when they did drop it, the average reduction was smaller ($31,295 vs. $35,974).

More homes sold over asking in Murrieta too — 34.1% compared to 32.4% previously. And 24.4% sold right at asking price, up from 22.1%. So if you add those together, nearly 59% of Murrieta homes sold at or above asking. That’s a pretty healthy number for a market that a lot of people aren’t paying attention to.

Days on Market in Murrieta Are Climbing

Just like Temecula, homes in Murrieta are taking longer to sell. The median days on market for closed sales went from 29 to 43 days — that’s a noticeable jump. Average DOM climbed from about 47 to 55 days. Cumulative DOM (which includes time from previous listings) also rose from 56 to 65 days.

For context, anything under 45 days generally signals a seller’s market, 45-70 days is balanced territory, and over 70 days favors buyers. Murrieta is sitting right in that balanced zone, which honestly is a healthy place to be for both sides of the transaction.

Murrieta Inventory and Sales Volume

Murrieta closed 123 homes in the last 60 days versus 136 in the prior window — a dip, but not a dramatic one. The monthly absorption rate sits at about 61.5 homes, and with 180 active listings on the market, that gives us roughly 2.9 months of inventory in Murrieta, up from 2.6. Another 95 homes are currently pending or under contract.

So both cities are now sitting at the same 2.9 months of supply. That’s not a buyer’s market by any stretch — you’d need to see 5-6 months for that — but buyers definitely have more leverage than they did six months ago.

The Big Concessions Shift in Murrieta

Here’s probably the most significant data point in the entire report for Murrieta. Buyer concessions dropped hard. In the 60-120 day window, 52.2% of all Murrieta sales included some kind of buyer concession. In the most recent 60 days? Just 42.3%. That’s a 10-point swing. And when sellers did give concessions, the average dropped from $25,150 to $21,280.

What does that mean in plain English? Sellers in Murrieta are giving less back to buyers than they were two months ago. Whether that’s because of spring demand starting to heat up, or because sellers are just feeling more confident — the result is the same. Buyers have less room to ask for rate buydowns and closing cost credits than they did heading into the holidays.

So Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Temecula and Murrieta?

Here’s my honest take after going through all the data.

If you’re selling in Temecula or Murrieta: Prices are stable, and that’s a big deal. We’re not seeing price drops across the board — in fact, fewer sellers are having to reduce their price compared to the prior period. But homes are taking longer to sell, so don’t expect a 2021-style weekend bidding war. Price it right, present it well, and you’ll do just fine. Overprice it and you’re looking at sitting for 60-70+ days and eventually taking a bigger cut.

If you’re buying in Temecula or Murrieta: You’ve got more options and more time than you did even three months ago. With 2.9 months of inventory in both cities, there’s enough to shop around without feeling desperate. Mortgage rates in California are currently hovering in the high 5% to low 6% range for a 30-year fixed, which is a meaningful improvement from where we were in late 2023 and 2024. And in Temecula specifically, over 41% of sellers are still giving concessions, so don’t be afraid to ask for closing cost help or a rate buydown.

If you found this analysis useful, make sure to subscribe to the channel and hit that notification bell so you don’t miss the next update. I run these numbers every month to give you the most accurate, data-driven look at Inland Empire real estate — no fluff, no hype, just what the MLS data actually says.

Have questions about a specific neighborhood in Temecula or Murrieta? Drop a comment below or reach out directly — happy to dig into the numbers for you.