I just got back from a short break, and while I was trying to remember my email password, my phone started buzzing. Christie’s appraisal inbox lit up more than usual for this time of year. That got me curious: is the market actually picking up, or is it just a noisy week?
So I pulled MLS data for Temecula and Murrieta, single-family homes under $900,000, and split it into two chunks:
- Recent: the last 0–60 days
- Earlier: 60–120 days back (roughly June/July timing)
I do it this way because those ultra-high sales can skew things. Most buyers in our area are shopping between $700k–$900k, so this lens gives a truer read of what regular people are experiencing.
What changed overall
- Closed sales: 235 (recent) vs 186 (earlier) → way more homes actually closed in the last 60 days.
- Median sold price: $670,000 (recent) vs $662,500 (earlier) → up about $8k.
- Median days on market: 22 days (recent) vs 31 days (earlier) → homes are moving faster.
- Sale-to-list (SP/LP): 99.2% (recent) vs 98.1% (earlier) → buyers are paying closer to asking.
- Price reductions: 28.3% of listings had reductions (recent) vs 36% (earlier).
- Average reduction size: 3.8% (recent) vs 4.5% (earlier).
If you’ve been feeling like the market has a pulse again—you’re not imagining it. Fewer cuts, smaller cuts, faster sales, slightly stronger prices.
Why the $900k cap matters
Quick note: I keep the analysis under $900k so we’re not reading tea leaves off a couple of $3–$4M outliers. If you’re buying or selling a typical family home here, this is the lane you’re likely in—and it’s the lane this post focuses on.
Temecula snapshot
Recent 0–60 days
- Closed: 124
- Median sold: $675,000
- SP/LP: 99.4%
- Median DOM: 20 days
- Price reductions: 25.7% of listings (avg 3.5%)
- Inventory flow: 142 Active | 96 Pending | 124 Closed
Earlier 60–120 days
- Closed: 93
- Median sold: $670,000
- SP/LP: 98.2%
- Median DOM: 29 days
- Price reductions: 34.6% (avg ~3.4%)
- Inventory flow: 158 Active | 72 Pending | 93 Closed
Read:
Temecula picked up speed—more closings, fewer actives, more pendings, shorter days on market. When pricing is on point, homes are getting scooped up.
Murrieta snapshot
Recent 0–60 days
- Closed: 111
- Median sold: $655,000
- SP/LP: 98.9%
- Median DOM: 24 days
- Price reductions: 31.1% (avg 4.2%)
- Inventory flow: 126 Active | 84 Pending | 111 Closed
Earlier 60–120 days
- Closed: 93
- Median sold: $650,000
- SP/LP: 98.0%
- Median DOM: 33 days
- Price reductions: 38% (avg 4.7%)
- Inventory flow: 149 Active | 65 Pending | 93 Closed
Read:
Murrieta is telling the same story: more closings, DOM down, fewer price cuts. Buyers are showing up, and sellers who price realistically are getting it done.
So…why the uptick?
Your guess is as good as mine (and honestly, some days better than the economists’). But here’s a reasonable take: a lot of folks believe rates may drift down next year, and they don’t want to be fighting 10 offers in May/June. Pay a little more now? Maybe. But skip the frenzy later? That’s appealing.
If you’re buying
- Move fast on clean, well-priced homes. The DOM trend says you’re not the only one watching.
- Know your numbers before you tour. Pre-approval is your permission slip; it turns “I like it” into “let’s write it.”
- Don’t overthink minor price cuts. The average reduction got smaller—which means the good ones are landing close to asking anyway.
If you’re selling
- Price it right from day one. The market is rewarding realistic list prices with shorter DOM and less discounting.
- Prep matters. Clean, bright, and move-in ready still wins.
- Watch pendings, not just actives. Pendings are the heartbeat; they tell you where demand is right now.
Want this for your neighborhood?
I can break this down by micro-neighborhood, school zone, or price band so you’re not guessing based on averages. If you’re curious what your home would sell for—or what it takes to win as a buyer—reach out.
I’m Joel Daniel, broker at Greenleaf Real Estate & Appraisal (Christie’s the certified appraiser and the sane one in our duo). Temecula & Murrieta are our backyard. Happy to help you think it through—no pressure, no weird sales pitch.